author

Hilary W. Hoynes

Research Associate at University of California, Berkeley

Safety net programs can have impacts in the long-term (on employment, earnings, and mortality) that don't show up in current government practices of limiting time horizons for cost-benefit policy analysis to the short-term. Children with greater access to economic resources before age five experience an increase of 6% of a standard deviation (SD) in their adult human capital, 3% of a SD in their adult self-sufficiency, 8% of a SD in quality of their adult neighborhoods, 0.4% increase in longevity, and 0.5% decrease in likelihood of incarceration. A "pure" UBI (that entirely replaces welfare) would distribute earnings upwards. A "pure" UBI (that replaces all other welfare programs) redistributes money from the elderly and disabled towards those who are neither. Universal Basic Income could lead to increased human capital investments that show up in the medium to long run. Evidence from Alaska, Native casino payouts, and Manitoba all found no statistically significant changes in labor supply.
UBI in the US and Advanced Countries Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence from the Food Stamps Program Children and the US Social Safety Net: Balancing Disincentives for Adults and Benefits for Children
Basic Income Social Wealth Fund
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